Friday, February 13, 2009

Dejavu all over again?







I am just starting to research this more fully, but my initial observation reveals some eery economic similarities between Presidents Hoover, Carter, and Obama.
Get ready folks, it's going to be a seriously rough ride.





8 comments:

Rick Calohan said...

Tony,

While Hoover may have been blamed for the Great Depression he did his utmost to limit the role of the Federal Government would play in the lives of individuals. Unlike his successor Franklin Delano Roosevelt who under mob role invoked the Federal Government with his alphabet soup agencies under his New Deal which in fact delayed the recovery from the Great Depression, two terms and eight years later, FDR ran for a third term but the country was not much better off than had it been under Hoover. It would take World War II to pull us out of the Great Depression. Another President you left off this list was Lyndon Baines Johnson who expanded the role of domestic policies including Medicare and Welfare. Now often we hear from the Democrats that this is the worst economy since the Great Depression, I guess they seem to forget the Malaise and the double digit interest rates, inflation, and unemployment misery index under Jimmy Carter. See Reaganomics vs. Obamanomics at this link:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123431484726570949.html

Under Jimmy Carter’s years in office here are the Inflation and Unemployment Rate a.k.a. Misery Index respectively

1977 6.5% Inflation with 6.9% Unemployment
1978 7.7% Inflation with 6% Unemployment
1979 11.3% Inflation with 5.8% Unemployment
1980 13.5% Inflation with 7% Unemployment

To be fair Jimmy Carter entered office with 5.8% Inflation and 7.6% Unemployment.

To find out more about the Misery Index see :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misery_index_(economics)

Whoever runs against President Obama in 2012 I hope is articulate enough to paraphrase the Ronald Reagan who said while running against Jimmy Carter, “A recession is when your neighbor is out of work. A depression is when you are out of work. And a recovery is when Jimmy Carter is out of work.”

Jim said...

Academic economists who have devoted their lives to understanding macroeconomic phenomena do not know whether the ride will be rough or not. And, with all due respect, neither will you, even if you spend a few or your spare moments "researching this more carefully."

Shoot, I have a graduate degree in economics from an Ivy league university, and have taught economics at the university level, and I wouldn't make the call you did.

The first step toward real understanding is to know what you don't know.

How about just a little bit of intellectual humility, Pastor?

Anonymous said...

Tony,
Our new president and the news media are alarmist. Rick is right, our economy is not as bad as it was in the mid to late 70's. But could it become worse? Yes, if we believe what we are fed through the news media and president.
If I were a betting person, I would bet you that the democrats in the House and Senate have never read the entire so called economic package that was just passed.(so they are led by their noses) The Republicians that did not vote for it were wise.
Democrats will blame George for the mess, but will never tell you that it was the Carter Administration that loosened the belt on the lending laws and then Clinton's administration took the belt off, causing the pants to fall, so to speak.
Just my 2cents worth.
Norma

Reepicheep said...

I could definitely use more humility, accross the board, thanks for the reminder Jim.

Still, as uneducated as I am, I do have quite a few people much more learned who have been enlightening me in this area of economics, so I think it's not to big of a stretch to say we're in for a rough ride. I appreciate Rick and Norma's points as well.

Michael Lockridge said...

NEW President alarmist? You mean like starting a war based on rumors of "weapons of mass destruction?" Or some other kind of alarmist?

Hey, it was no joy ride before. I voted for a change of direction. One thing I learned flying with bush pilots was to do SOMETHING. If that doesn't work, do something else. Keep doing something until you succeed or die.

I don't know how rough the ride will be. I do know a golden age is over, and things will get interesting in the Chinese sense of the word.

Just keep your hands and feet inside the ride at all times, and things will be fine.

Yeah.

Mike

Reepicheep said...

M- I agree we needed to do "something else"...just not too convinced the something else looks very good so far.

Keep keeping me in check. I need it.

Anonymous said...

I think it is unfair to place Hoover in this group. He probably wasn't a great president, but his ideals were conservative. He just lacked the presidential skills to further his agenda.

Frontier Forest said...

Some mighty powerful thoughts from everyone! Rick, I think you must run for President in 2012?
I don’t know much about Hoover, but in my opinion, Johnson was an angry, greedy crook, and Carter was an honest, but na├»ve, idiot ideologue. But, we have Obama at the helm. Now steering into gale winds, heading us directly into the storm, Obama has transparency as his mask, (not a mast), new ideas floating away and positive change is quickly drifting into darkness. How or what is powering this rapidly sinking ship… Geitner, Bernanke, Pelosi, Reid, Schumer, Dodd and Franks? Have to confess, my own high hopes and cautious optimism is drowning and the fear of this sinking ship is staring all of us right in the face.